Publications

1. A.C. Murph, J.D. Strait, K.R. Moran, J.D. Hyman, H.S. Viswanatha, and P.H. Stauffer (2024). Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, 1, e2023JH000113.
   Links: Manuscript. Zenodo Repository.
2. A.C. Murph, J.D. Strait, K.R. Moran, J.D. Hyman, & P.H. Stauffer (2024). Visualisation and Outlier Detection for Probability Density Function Ensembles, Stat, 13(2), e662.
   Links: Manuscript. CRAN Package.
3. Y. Liu, J. Hannig, and A.C. Murph (2023). A Geometric Perspective on Bayesian and Generalized Fiducial Inference. Accepted to Statistical Sciences.
   Links: Manuscript.
4. J.D. Hyman, A.C. Murph, L. Boampong, A. Navarre-Sitchler, G. Srinivasan, J.W. Carey, and H.S. Viswanathan (2024). Determining the dominant factors for carbon mineralization in three-dimensional fracture networks, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 139, p. 104265, ISSN: 1750-5836. Links: Manuscript.
5. A.C. Murph, J. Hannig, and J.P. Williams (2021). Introduction to Generalized Fiducial Inference. In J. Berger, X. Meng, N. Reid, & M. Xie (Eds.) Handbook of Bayesian, Fiducial, and Frequentist Inference (Ch. 13). Chapman & Hall.
   Links: Manuscript. Code Repository.
6. A.C. Murph, A. Flynt, B.R. King (2021). Comparing finite sequences of discrete events with non-uniform time intervals, Sequential Analysis, 40(3), 291-313.
   Links: Code Repository. CRAN Package. Poster.
7. E. Faden, A. Mitchel, A.C. Murph, T. Myers, and N.C. Ryan (2021). Mr. Hulot’s Invisible Gorilla, Projections, 15(2), 1-29.
   Links: Code Repository.

• A.C. Murph, G.C. Gibson, E.B. Amona, L.J. Beesley, L.A. Castro, S. Del Valle, and D. Osthus (202x). Synthetic Method of Analogues for Emerging Infectious Disease Forecasting. In review.
  
• A.C. Murph, J. Hannig, and J.P. Williams (202x). Generalized Fiducial Inference on Differentiable Manifolds. In review.
  Links: Manuscript. Code Repository. Poster.
• A.C. Murph, C.B. Storlie, P.M. Wilson, J.P. Williams, and J. Hannig (202x). Bayes Watch: Bayesian Change-point Detection for Process Monitoring with Fault Detection. In review.
  Links: Manuscript. CRAN Package. Poster at ICHI IEEE 10.
• A.C. Murph, G.C. Gibson, L.J. Beesley, N. Panda, L.A. Castro, S. Del Valle, and D. Osthus (202x) Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Forecasting Applications. In review. Links: Manuscript.
• E.C. Lawrence, A.C. Murph, S. Vander Wiel, and J. Zhang (202x) A New Method for Multinomial Inference using Dempster-Shafer Theory. In Review
  Links: Manuscript.
• J.D. Strait, K.R. Moran, A.C. Murph, J.D. Hyman, and P. Stauffer, P. (202x) Covariate-Informed Multi-Fidelity Bias Correction of Distributions, In Review.
• A.C. Murph, L.J. Beesley, G.C. Gibson, L.A. Castro, S. Del Valle, and D. Osthus (202x). EpiFFORMA: Disease-Agnostic Ensemble Weighting for Forecasting Emerging Epidemic Time Series without Historical Data. Late Draft.
  

• Successfully defended on April 21st, 2023 at UNC Chapel Hill. Advised by Jan Hannig, Jon P. Williams, and Curt Storlie. See: Manuscript and Presentation

Conference Presentations

• EpiFFORMA: Ensemble Weighting for Forecasting Emerging Epidemic Time Series without Historical Data. Given at Joint Mathematics Meetings (2025) in Seattle, WA. Presentation Slides.
• Uncertainty Quantification in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Multifidelity Discrete Fracture Network Simulations. Given at SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification (2024) in Trieste, Italy. Presentation Slides.
• Bayesian Change Point Detection for Mixed Data ith Missing Values. Given at IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics 10 (2022) in Rochester, MN. Poster.
• Generalized Fiducial Inference on Riemannian Manifolds. Given at Bayesian, Fiducial, & Frequentist 7 (2022) in Toronto, Canada. Poster.
• Comparing Finite Sequences of Discrete Events with Non-uniform Time Intervals. Given at The Classification Society Annual Meeting (2021) in Lewisburg, PA. Poster.