Alexander C. Murph
Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory
Research Consultant at the Mayo Clinic
Santa Fe, NM
Scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory
Research Consultant at the Mayo Clinic
Santa Fe, NM
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7170-867X
Research Interests
My research develops statistically rigorous methods for decision-making under uncertainty across multiple scientific domains, especially in settings where classical assumptions break down: non-Euclidean parameter spaces, massive physics simulators with intrinsic stochasticity, and limited historical data. I work collaboratively with domain scientists to build practical forecasting and uncertainty quantification tools that are both methodologically principled and operationally useful, including disease-agnostic ensemble learning for infectious disease prediction, modeling and understanding Solar Energetic Particle events for national security applications, and sensitivity analysis and bias correction for multi-fidelity discrete fracture network models. Alongside these applied efforts, I maintain an ongoing interest in the theory and computation of generalized fiducial and Bayesian inference, inference on differentiable manifolds and geometric perspectives on uncertainty, and methods based on Dempster-Shafer calculus. Across all areas, my goal is to deliver deployable methods with careful attention to reproducibility and open software.
Recent News
| 25 Jun 2025 | My paper on the synthetic method of analogues was published in PLOS Computational Biology. |
| 15 Dec 2024 | I am giving a talk at JMM in Seattle, WA in January. If you are going to be there and want to chat, shoot me a message! |
| 27 Jul 2024 | I accepted the full staff position at Los Alamos National Laboratory! |
| 17 Apr 2024 | I gave an invited seminar at Los Alamos National Laboratory on a new Bayesian Tensor Regression project my collaborators and I have begun recently. |
| 13 Mar 2024 | I recently made my dissertation publically available. Check it out here. |